Plucking the duck: just the facts

I Fucking Love Australia published a good summary of Trump’s legal, political and other woes. Here’s the condensed version, without the expletive-laden Aussie flair, but with links to sources. Made with claude.ai.

Court losses

Kennedy Center. Trump’s appointed board renamed the Kennedy Center in December 2025. Federal Judge Christopher Cooper ruled on 29 May 2026 that only Congress has authority to rename it and gave the centre 14 days to remove all signage. Staff began removing the name in early June. (Time)

Tariffs. The Supreme Court ruled 6–3 on 20 February 2026 (Learning Resources Inc. v. Trump) that IEEPA does not authorise the president to impose tariffs. Chief Justice Roberts wrote the majority opinion. More than $160 billion in tariffs collected under IEEPA are now in legal limbo for potential refunds. (Tax Foundation, Holland & Knight) Trump responded within hours by imposing a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, later raised to 15%. (Brookings)

Note on the justices: Reporting confirms Gorsuch and Barrett sided with the majority, but the 6–3 split reflects differing reasoning among the justices rather than a clean ideological alignment. (K&L Gates)

Other blocks. Lower courts have blocked the birthright citizenship executive order in all jurisdictions where it has been challenged. A court indefinitely blocked National Guard deployment to Chicago. The Supreme Court blocked use of an 18th-century wartime statute (the Alien Enemies Act) for deportations without hearings.

Overall record. One analysis recorded 114 losses to 59 wins; another found a 96% loss rate in a single month, with Republican-appointed judges rejecting the administration’s arguments at similar rates to Democratic appointees.

Legislative setbacks

SAVE Act. The Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act passed the House in February 2026 on a near party-line vote (218–213), but failed in the Senate, unable to reach the 60-vote threshold to overcome the Democratic filibuster. Senate Majority Leader Thune publicly acknowledged before the vote that the numbers were not there. A further attempt on 4 June 2026 to attach it to a reconciliation bill also failed, 48–50, with four Republican senators voting against. The bill is stalled but not permanently dead; further attempts via reconciliation are being discussed.

War powers — Iran. After seven failed attempts, the Senate on 19 May 2026 voted 50–47 to advance a war powers resolution directing Trump to end hostilities with Iran. Four Republicans crossed party lines: Rand Paul (Kentucky), Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) — who voted this way for the first time — and Bill Cassidy (Louisiana), who flipped days after losing his primary, where Trump had backed his opponent. The sole Democratic defection was John Fetterman (Pennsylvania), who has opposed every such vote. (CBS News, NBC News)

Ukraine Support Act. On 4 June 2026, the House passed the Ukraine Support Act (H.R. 2913) 226–195, with 18 Republicans joining almost all Democrats. The sole Democratic vote against was Rep. Ilhan Omar (Minnesota). The bill authorises $1.3 billion in defence aid, $8 billion in loans, and new sanctions on Russia. (CNN, ABC News)

The vote was forced to the floor via a discharge petition — a rare procedural tool requiring 218 signatures — after Speaker Johnson declined to bring it forward. Independent Rep. Kevin Kiley (California) provided the 218th and decisive signature. The bill faces steep odds in the Senate, where 60 votes are needed, and a near-certain presidential veto. (NOTUS)

The day before, the House also passed a war powers resolution directing Trump to end hostilities with Iran, with four Republicans breaking ranks (215–208).

Republican party fracture

The Ukraine Support Act passage is the most significant congressional break with Trump’s foreign policy agenda in his second term. Johnson’s inability to prevent the floor vote — the discharge petition bypassed him entirely — is a concrete indicator of weakening leadership authority within the House Republican conference. The votes are largely symbolic in immediate legal effect, facing Senate arithmetic and a veto, but the trajectory of defections is measurable and growing.

The Welker interview

On 7 June 2026, Trump sat for a taped Meet the Press interview with Kristen Welker at Custer Farms, Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin. He walked out after Welker repeatedly pressed him to provide evidence for his claims that California’s primary count was fraudulent and that FBI agents had ushered rioters into the Capitol on 6 January 2021. Before leaving, he called the network “crooked,” told Welker she was “either crooked or stupid,” and removed his lapel microphone. His exact parting words: “You’re a one-sided crooked network. Sorry. Let’s call it quits because I’ve had enough. Thank you, darling.” (Washington Post, Variety, CNBC)

The interview also covered the $1.776 billion “weaponisation fund” intended to compensate convicted January 6 defendants, which had been blocked by court order. His own endorsed California gubernatorial candidate, Steve Hilton, had publicly stated he saw no evidence of fraud in the primary count — only a slow but routine mail ballot process. Hilton subsequently advanced from the jungle primary to the November general election.

Health and fitness

Three unscheduled visits to Walter Reed in 13 months, heading into his 80th birthday (the oldest person sworn in as president)
Press office attributes visible swollen ankles and bruised hands to “frequent handshaking”
Full medical records remain unreleased; official statements describe his health as “excellent”
An April 2026 poll found fewer than half of American adults believe Trump is mentally sharp or physically fit enough for the job

Legal exposure

Trump enters the second half of his term as a 34-count convicted felon. The Supreme Court’s immunity ruling (Trump v. United States) grants absolute immunity only for core constitutional acts, and presumptive immunity for official acts; it provides no blanket protection for unofficial conduct. Significant criminal exposure after leaving office remains a live issue.

Electoral outlook

House (2026 midterms). Democrats need to flip three seats. Trump’s approval sits in the 38–41% range, with disapproval above 55%. Cook Political Report rates this terrain as favourable for Democratic gains.

Senate. Republicans hold 53–47. Democrats need a net gain of four seats. Most vulnerable Republican seats are in states Trump carried comfortably. Best Democratic pickup opportunities are Maine and North Carolina; Democrats must simultaneously defend Georgia and Michigan. Cook rates limited opportunities for a Democratic majority.

Removal threshold. Even a clean Democratic sweep of both chambers does not produce a Senate capable of the 67 votes required for removal following impeachment. A Democratic House majority would, however, create persistent subpoena and oversight pressure, and enable a third impeachment.

Published 10 June 2026. Primary sources: US Supreme Court, House Republican Cloakroom, NPR, Washington Post, CNN, ABC News, NBC News, CBS News, CNBC, Time, Variety, Tax Foundation, Brookings Institution, Holland & Knight, K&L Gates, NOTUS, Democracy Docket, Kyiv Independent.