The Finnish Government’s 2025 Foresight Report, Part 1 (Tulevaisuusselonteon 1. osa) outlines four plausible worlds in 2045. It is not a prediction, but a strategic foresight tool – designed to help Finland anticipate global transformations, strengthen resilience, and actively shape its operating environment toward democracy, security, and sustainable prosperity.

Four Possible Worlds

Cooperation World. The rules-based international order endures. The EU remains cohesive, democracy and law are respected, and the green transition advances. Innovation and governance are predictable and fair. This is the most beneficial scenario for Finland – stable, secure, and cooperative.
Tech Giants’ World. Global corporations dominate data, AI, and standards. States lose regulatory power. IP and data governance are driven by commercial interests, and national security depends on private infrastructure.
Blocks’ World. The world divides into geopolitical blocs with conflicting norms, technologies, and values. The EU and NATO operate effectively within their bloc, but global cooperation weakens. Legal fragmentation and competing standards reduce innovation and trust.
Fragmenting World. Global coordination collapses. States focus on survival amid economic instability, climate crises, and hybrid threats. The rule of law and international institutions erode, forcing Finland to rely on comprehensive national defence and societal resilience.

Key Strategic Recommendations

The report gives no probabilities for the scenarios but urges Finland to be prepared for all – while working to steer the future toward the “Cooperation World.”

The core recommendations include:

Strengthen multilateralism and the rule of law – support EU cohesion, democratic governance, and effective international institutions.
Build economic and technological resilience – diversify trade, invest in R&D and innovation, maintain fiscal flexibility.
Invest in education and skills – develop AI and digital literacy, promote lifelong learning, and strengthen public-sector foresight capacity.
Reinforce national security and total defence – deepen NATO-EU cooperation, enhance cyber resilience, and ensure crisis preparedness.
Safeguard digital sovereignty and ethical tech governance – counter dependence on global tech giants, build European data infrastructure.
Ensure a just and green transition – combine climate neutrality with social justice and competitiveness.
Maintain public trust and inclusion – transparency, citizen participation, and anticipatory governance as anchors of democratic stability.

Wild Cards – Low Probability, High Impact

The report highlights several wild cards – events that are unlikely but could radically reshape the world:

AI governance breakdown leading to uncontrolled technological escalation.
Major cyber conflict disrupting global infrastructure.
Rapid ecological collapse exceeding adaptation capacity.
Disintegration of the EU or severe loss of transatlantic cohesion.
Mass migration waves due to climate or geopolitical instability.

For Finland, these shocks would test both the resilience of governance and the flexibility of legal and security frameworks, underscoring the need for continuous foresight and adaptive capacity.

Strategic Intent

The report concludes with a clear guiding principle:

“Finland must be prepared for all four worlds – yet act so that the least desirable ones do not come true.”

This requires a strategy of shaping, shielding, and sustaining:

Shaping an international environment grounded in cooperation and law.
Shielding society from technological, economic, and military shocks.
Sustaining long-term readiness and innovation capacity, regardless of how the world evolves.

Finland’s future will depend not only on external conditions, but on how early and decisively it prepares for them.

(Summarised with ChatGPT, edited by me)
Originally posted on LinkedIn